Despite our desire as fans to see more teams use tender offer sheets to pursue RFAs, we’ve very rarely actually seen one in action. On Saturday, the Carolina Hurricanes gave us a taste and spiced up an already entertaining offseason by signing Montreal’s Jesperi Kotkaniemi to an offer sheet. Let’s take a look at some of the options and implications.
Offer Sheets
First off, let’s quickly remind ourselves of the offer sheet process. Under the CBA, any team can sign a restricted free agent to a contract however the team that owns the player’s rights get’s a right of first refusal. Once the offer sheet has been signed, the team holding the player’s rights has 7 days to match the offer and holds onto the player. If they decide against matching the offer, they are awarded compensation in the form of draft picks from the signing team.
The Offer: Jesperi Kotkaniemi
The Hurricanes signed Kotkaniemi to a one year, $6.1M offer sheet on Saturday (Aug 28). The Canadiens, who owned Kotkaniemi’s rights, now have 7 days to either match the offer or let Kotkaniemi go to Carolina and accept compensation. Based on the cap hit of the offer, the compensation is a 1st round pick and a 3rd round pick.
Implications
Why did the Canes decide to offer sheet Kotkaniemi? And is it worth the cost?
Let’s go back to the summer of 2019, when it was the Habs pursuing one of the Hurricanes young players via offer sheet. The Habs signed Sebastian Aho to a 5 year, $42.27M offer sheet on July 1, 2019 which the Canes ultimately matched. In hindsight, this looks like a good decision as Aho has become a key player in Carolina.
Yet perhaps the Hurricanes haven’t forgotten the Aho offer sheet. The Canadiens are already slightly over the cap and there is some amount of vengeance in the move to go after a 21 year old former 3rd overall pick. The Canadiens are certainly backed into a corner here and will have to make a difficult decision.
Should the Habs match the offer? Kotkaniemi’s projected impact in my model for the 21/22 season is that of a borderline 2nd/3rd line forward, which makes the $6.1M cap hit a significant overpay. Not only is it an overpay for this season, but it also makes his next qualifying offer worth $6.1M so it could have additional future cap implications.
Finally, here’s a look at both team’s roster depth with and without Kotkaniemi. The Canes stand to benefit from a significant improvement in their bottom six, while the Habs’ depth sees smaller changes.
What do you think? Should the Canadiens match the offer or take the draft picks?
