Offseason Update: June 23-29 - Puck Luck Analytics

With still over three weeks to go until the expansion draft, it was a fairly quiet week for offseason moves in the NHL. We saw a few RFAs re-sign in depth roles over the week and two pending UFAs came off the board on Tuesday, re-signing with their respective teams. Let’s take a look at the most notable moves from the past week.

Best UFA Signing

With just two pending unrestricted free agents re-signing with their current teams over the past week, we don’t have many options to wade through here. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins returned to the Edmonton Oilers on an 8 year deal with a cap hit of $5.125M, while Wayne Simmonds re-signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs on a 2 year deal with a cap hit of $900k.

The 28 year old Nugent-Hopkins has been the far more productive player in recent seasons. The $5.125M cap hit is not outrageous based on my model projections for next season so the biggest question will be whether he can maintain production worthy of his cap hit into his mid-30s. With his (re)addition to the Oilers’ top six, their team point percentage projection gets a moderate boost of 0.004 making this UFA signing the most impactful of the week.

Worst UFA Signing

With only two options to choose from, we’re left with Wayne Simmonds re-signing with the Toronto Maple Leafs as the worst UFA signing of the week. He played depth minutes for the Leafs last season and my model projections for next season suggest that is the appropriate role for him, if he is a regular at all. His addition to the Leafs’ roster has virtually no effect on their team point projection and, while the $900k cap hit is frugal, the second year seems out of place for a 32 year old holding down a fringe spot on the roster.

RFA Signings

A handful of pending RFAs put pen to paper on new deals over the past week, with Blake Lizotte (LAK) and Trent Frederic (BOS) the most notable. With our assumption that RFAs will return next season, there is no change to the team projections.